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with declining growth, can France enter a recession?

V.Frédéric, L.Campisi, N.Auern M.Multo, A.D’Abrigeon – France 2

France Televisions

The Banque de France’s growth forecasts have been revised downwards for the year 2022. They would be 2.3% in 2022. However, the war in Ukraine and the rise in energy prices could weigh on growth .

Wednesday, June 22, uncertainty hovers over French growth, which could rise or plunge. Only the tourism sector seems to be holding up for the moment. In an amusement park, the season is already looking better than that of 2019, before the Covid-19 epidemic. “There is a question that we ask ourselves, it is the question of purchasing power, of the inflationary context, which can be a brake”worries Delphine Pons, general manager of Parc Astérix.

Apart from tourism, the rest of the economy is slowing down with 2022 growth estimated between 2.8% and 3.4% in March by the Banque de France. This growth would eventually fall to 2.3% in 2022, 1.2% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024. France would avoid recession, but the war in Ukraine complicates the situation. “The risk is that the government will not be able to cover all of the increase in gas prices, that households will be forced to pay a much higher bill”, explains Stéphanie Villers, economist. The Banque de France forecasts inflation of 5.6% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023.

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