What the polls say about Newsom vs. DeSantis in the hypothetical 2024 game


Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be more popular among independent and Latino voters than Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom if they ever decide to run for president in 2024, recent polls show.

Speculation about Desantis and Newsom’s presidential ambitions in 2024 has increased in recent months. On Friday, Newsom took aim at DeSantis and challenged the GOP governor to a debate.

“Hey @GovRonDeSantis, it’s clear you’re struggling, distracted and busy playing politics with people’s lives. Since you only have one primary need – attention – let’s pick this up and debate. I’ll bring my hair gel. You bring your hairspray. Name the time before Election Day. @CNN,” the California governor wrote on Twitter, further fueling speculation about his ambitions for 2024.

In a hypothetical game, DeSantis defeats Newsom in California where 85% of Republican voters in the state would choose the governor of Florida, who also takes the lead among independents, Latinos and voters aged 40 to 49, according to a published poll. by Probolsky Research on August 19 which surveyed 900 likely California voters with a 3.3% margin of error.

“We’ve seen Newsom’s low support among Latino voters before, especially in his recall election,” said Adam Probolsky, president of Probolsky Research. “California Latinos have been among the hardest hit by the Covid-19 shutdowns and school closures and likely blame the governor for his handling of the pandemic.”

Although DeSantis and Newsom haven’t announced plans to race in 2024, they both appear to be positioning themselves to potentially race. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have also hinted they will run again in 2024.

Above, empty voting booths are seen on August 23 in Brooklyn, New York. Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would be more popular among some voters, including independents and Latinos, than California Gov. Gavin Newsom if they both decide to run in the 2024 presidential election, recent polls show. .
Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The Probolsky Research poll also showed that DeSantis is popular among independent voters as well, denying Newsom majority support among that group.

“To be clear, there’s virtually no chance of a Republican presidential candidate winning California in 2024,” Probolsky added. .”

In a poll conducted by Yahoo News between June 24 and 27, 1,630 respondents were asked if they would vote for Newsom or DeSantis if the 2024 election were held today.

A total of 39% of those polled said they would vote for Newsom, compared to 36% who would choose DeSantis. Still, the Florida governor is more popular among independent voters as 38% of them said they would vote for him in a hypothetical presidential race compared to 33% of independent voters who would vote for Newsom.

Favor among state residents is also factored in when comparing the odds of Republican and Democratic governors in a hypothetical game.

Last month, a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll showed 54% of Florida voters approved of DeSantis’ performance as governor, with 88% of Republicans and 52% of No Party Affiliation (NPA) approving of his work. Additionally, 65% of Hispanic voters approve of his performance, compared to 32% who disapprove. The poll was conducted with 608 respondents statewide with a 4% margin of error.

Meanwhile, a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Aug. 23 showed 53% of California voters approve of Newsom’s performance as governor, compared to 42% who disapprove. This is a slight improvement from the last poll released in February, asking voters about his job performance. The poll was conducted among 9,254 registered voters in California with a sampling error of about 2 percentage points.

Newsweek contacted DeSantis’ office for comment.

Notably, President Joe Biden has repeatedly stated that he plans to run for a second presidential term. If Biden ultimately follows through, Newsom is expected to directly challenge the incumbent in the primaries for the Democratic Party nomination.

Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly hinted that he plans to run for president again in 2024. Polls generally show the former president would be the clear GOP frontrunner, but DeSantis looks favored if Trump chooses. not to run for another term in the White House.



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