The US 10-year yield hits a new high at 2.869%. The current yield is 2.853% as I type.
The next target is at the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the June 14 high. Move above that level and the door opens for a run to the 50% midpoint of the same move down to a nice 3.00% level.
What is technically interesting is that yesterday’s weak performance ended right at last week’s closing level at 2.654%. The price broke below its 100 hourly moving average a few times, but reestablished support against that moving average level before launching higher after much better than expected employment data.
It seems that going back to 3% would be a no-brainer since the Fed is now likely to strongly consider 75 basis points in September versus 50.
However, next week’s CPI data will be another key data point that Fed officials said they are focusing on.
PS. If you look at the daily 10-year yield chart below, the 100-day moving average is at 2.856%. High yield today hit 2.869% so far. The current yield is 2.85%
Getting back above the 100-day moving average would be a bullish move for yields. This is perhaps the most important technical barometer for future returns.
US 10-year yield tests its 100-day moving average