Technically, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will end in two weeks, but parts of the Atlantic Ocean are still boiling. A tropical depression or storm could form by the start of the weekend in the Caribbean Sea – forecasters have outlined the area to watch out for in November.
There are two more names up for grabs on the list – Vince and Whitney.
The largest the opportunity to make a name for yourself lies in an area of showers and thunderstorms Caribbean Sea just east of Honduras and Nicaragua. This area of weather disturbances became slightly more organized Wednesday evening and has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If it develops into a tropical depression, the very warm waters it passes through in the Caribbean could help it transform into a tropical storm.
Sea surface temperatures are shown throughout the western Atlantic basin, where darker reds indicate higher temperatures.
Besides the fact that if the system develops further, it Heavy rains will flood Jamaica and parts of Cuba and Haiti overnight Thursday into Saturday, and dangerous flash flooding and mudslides are possible under the most torrential rains.
Parts of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands will also be soaked Saturday as tropical humidity fuels storms in the region.
The Caribbean area of interest has so far been thwarted by a few environmental factors. To grow and strengthen, a tropical system needs warm water, low wind shear, and plenty of moisture. However, not all of these were in place in the Caribbean Sea this week.
Sea surface temperatures remain warm enough to support tropical development, but wind shear has emerged as a limiting factor. Wind shear can destroy a storm’s circulation or prevent its formation.
But once wind shear recedes, it will leave the door wide open for tropical development, and wind shear over the Caribbean eased slightly Wednesday night through Thursday and will remain generally low through the weekend.
Further north, tropical development is possible but unlikely from an area of thunderstorms off the Southeast coast. This area of stormy weather dumped torrential rain on South Florida on Wednesday.
The most likely scenario is that a non-tropical storm develops and moves up the East Coast over the weekend. In this scenario, rough seas and windy conditions are possible along the southeast coast this weekend.
Even though the season is late, tropical storms and even hurricanes form in November.
- Hurricane Nicole strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane before striking Florida on November 10, 2022.
- Both Iota and Eta strengthened into powerful Category 4 hurricanes in November 2020.
- With sustained winds of 250 km/h, Iota was the strongest November storm in the Atlantic since Hurricane Lenny in 1999, which reached the same intensity.
CNN’s Abigail Holmes contributed to this story.
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