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The last budget of the Macron five-year term still largely unfinished

The last budget of a five-year term is rarely that of major decisions. The fifth finance bill (PLF) of Emmanuel Macron’s mandate, which will be presented on September 22 in the Council of Ministers, will he depart from the rule? It is in any case a copy still largely unfinished that the Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, was to send, Friday, September 10, to the High Council of Public Finance, the body responsible for giving an opinion on the macroeconomic outlook which underpin the budget.

Indeed, the current version of the PLF does not include two of the major projects of the last “200 days” of the Head of State’s mandate: the investment plan, already called “France 2030”, and the commitment income. . The first, a device aimed at bringing out the industrial sectors of the future, whose total budget spread over several years should be around 30 billion euros, was postponed from September to the first half of October and will be introduced by amendment. government during the discussion of the text, traditionally voted at the end of December.

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The same should be true for the commitment income, successor to the “youth guarantee”, supposed to offer support towards employment along with financial assistance to 18-25 year olds removed from the labor market. “These are two aspects of public policy that take time. A month more or less for a ten-year investment plan, that doesn’t really matter ”, we assure Bercy.

Increased tax revenue

Result : the public deficit, expected at 8.4% of GDP in 2021, is largely in abeyance for 2022. It is forecast at 4.8% of GDP next year, but will necessarily be increased, once the measures underway are integrated. elaboration. However, it should remain “Less than 5.3%” – amount foreseen in the stability program sent to Brussels in April -, we assure Bercy.

Despite a notable economic upturn, the growth objectives have not been changed: the government still expects an increase of 6% of GDP this year and 4% for 2022, as expected in April. The executive does not foresee, moreover, new credits allocated to emergency measures for companies affected by the crisis in 2022.

The strength of post-crisis activity due to Covid-19 should, on the other hand, result in additional tax revenue on the three main taxes, namely VAT, income tax and corporate tax, forming a “pot”, a term rejected by Bercy. “We will not spend all the fruits of growth. Part will go to reducing deficits and debt ”, specifies the ministry. “We can combine a return to growth and a reasonable restoration of public finances”, insists Bruno Le Maire, affirming that the public debt, ” slightly less than 116% ‘ This year, will be reduced to 114% in 2022.

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