The dollar is more mixed with the end of the month and the end of the quarter in focus


I never really like the uncertainty and potential mess that month-end feeds have to offer. Sure, they’re great for fading, but that’s never a guarantee, especially now that there are so many other moving parts on the market as well.

Risk tones remain softer on the day with European indices down between 1.7% and 2.3% while S&P futures are down 1.3% in the current session. Treasury yields continue to be lower, but that has yet to translate into meaningful action in major currencies, at least in my view.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% at 1.0415 after a slight rally to 1.0460 earlier and sellers are looking to pressure the double bottom around 1.0365-70 on the charts:

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% at 136.30 after hitting a low of 135.97 earlier in the day with little conviction despite more austere risk sentiment. Even commodity currencies were little changed against the dollar on the day.

The only decent move is the Franc as it returns yesterday’s gains with USD/CHF up 0.4% to near 0.9600. EUR/CHF is also rallying from 0.9970 to near 1.0000 right now.

It’s hard to get really much conviction today and with the end of the month and the end of the quarter in mind, it will also be harder to digest the moves. Not only that, it will be a long weekend in the United States, with July 4 being a public holiday, which will also make it difficult to end the week tomorrow before the weekend.


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