Saints vs. Dolphins odds, prediction, betting trends for NFL ‘Monday Night Football’
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When the Dolphins (7-7) travel to play against the Saints (7-7) in New Orleans to close NFL Week 16 on “Monday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN), it’s is a critical battle between conferences to help decide AFC and NFC wild-card races.
Miami would move into the AFC’s No.7 seed at 8-7, which would mean a remarkable seventh straight win after a dismal 1-7 start. New Orleans can’t jump San Francisco or Philadelphia with a win, but they would go to No.8 just behind both teams in the battle for the final NFC wildcard spot.
The Dolphins roll thanks to a much improved defense from Brian Flores and efficient QB play from Tua Tagovailoa. The Saints are fading, but have recovered with two straight wins after a five-game losing streak mid-season. Due to COVID-19 and injuries, fourth round rookie Ian Book will be called up for quarterback, but the defense is burning after excluding Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Week 15.
Here’s everything you need to know about betting on Saints vs Dolphins in Week 16, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for “Monday Night Football”.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff photo after Week 16 games
Saints vs Dolphins odds for Monday Night Football
- Propagated: Dolphins by 3
- Above / Below: 36.5
- Moneyline: Dolphins -164, Saints +138
The Saints themselves started the week as three-point favorites, until they were hit by a large outbreak of COVID-19 that affected both their offense and their defense. Overall, the Dolphins are in much better health heading into the game.
(betting odds by FanDuel Sportsbook)
Saints vs. Dolphins All-Time Series
The teams have met a dozen times over the years. The Dolphins have won six times. The Saints have also won six times. The Saints have won three straight games in the series, all during the Drew Brees era. The Dolphins will try to turn the tide on the road against Book.
Three trends to know
—59 percent of punters split like the Dolphins to take care of their small numbers given the condition of the entire Saints team.
—55% of over / under bettors think the point total is too microscopic being less than 40 points given both defenses.
—The Dolphins are just 5-4-1 ATS after going 6-4 in the last 10 games. Only four of those matches are over. The Saints are 5-5 ATS and 5-5 in SU in their last 10 games, only half of which have been passed.
Three things to watch out for
Who saves the saints?
The Saints don’t have much on the wide receiver and the passing game is less reliable without Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill. So it seems like a busy game for running back Alvin Kamara. Last Christmas he posted a TD six game over the Vikings and should be in good shape to wear his team again. The Saints will also need more big plays from the defense and make it a low scoring affair.
Who delivers for the dolphins?
Tagovailoa can’t expect much from the running game against the Saints’ defense, so he has to be precise when dealing the ball to wide receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVante Parker and tight end Mike Gesicki. New Orleans made a number on the Tampa Bay receiving body but got a significant break from mid-game injuries. The dolphins must throw to win.
Who wants more at 7-7?
Defenses are well trained and like to get physical and play hard. With points and big plays hard to come by, it’ll be a question of which team is consistently motivated in prime time to be emotionally up to the task. The Saints are helped by their home advantage, but the Dolphins have been doing it everywhere since their slow start.
Stat that matters
43.6% and 51%. The first number represents how often opponents score touchdowns in red zone opportunities against the NFL’s No.1 Saints defense. The second number belongs to the defense of the Dolphins in the same stat, also strong. This game will be about which team can best convert the odds near the goal line to avoid winning a battle of defensive attrition turned into a field goal party.
Saints vs. Dolphins
Miami is mostly healthy and has a versatile and multiple attack around Tagovailoa. he will not hesitate to make passes to move the ball on a team that stops the race well. They have dangerous field weapons to cause confrontation issues. Book will do their best to secure a victory for the Saints with plenty of help from Kamara, but they don’t have enough firepower beyond their dynamic function to win.
Dolphins 17, Saints 13
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