Putin in revenge mode, while his generals make money. What’s next for Russia’s “special operation”? | Top stories

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Russian dictator Vladimir Putin

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However, Putin also says this: there should be “the creation of conditions that would provide security guarantees for Russia” – but at the same time he downplays this argument in his rhetoric. Such a thesis creates additional uncertainty.

Obviously, producing more uncertainty is a usual Putin tactic, he never says anything just to say it. He always has a reason to say it.

The uncertainty revolves around what it means for Putin to be able to achieve certain goals that would “provide security guarantees” for his country.

Read also: Russians Lost Nearly $1 Billion in Equipment During Occupation of Snake Island – Forbes Ukraine

Of course, by saying this, Putin wants to preserve as much space for other actions as he deems necessary. If necessary, he can always go back to his original plan for “the special operation”.

If necessary, he can reschedule and reschedule those territorial gains he is thinking about right now. Even for the Russian army, the objectives of Putin’s “special operation” remain rather vague. They are volatile, changing all the time based on progress, or lack thereof, on the battlefields.

To add more uncertainty to Putin’s rhetoric, Russia issued a “goodwill” statement after pulling out of Snake Island in the Black Sea.

This is the second declaration of “goodwill” of this type during this war. Do you remember at the end of March, when Russia was withdrawing its troops from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts in northern Ukraine? At the time, we also heard about “goodwill”.

It’s a sign of how Russia understands “goodwill” and what particular actions it might take after expressing it.

Let us now analyze all these versions expressed in recent days to explain the latest wave of Russian escalation – the missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and their civilian infrastructure. Obviously, this has nothing to do with achieving particular military goals – rather it is about taking revenge on Ukraine for all the successes it has achieved during the war.

You can’t judge Ukraine’s success by the number of local advances, because it’s a much larger strategic success. Look at Snake Island – it’s a very painful assault on both Russia’s military positions and Russia’s public image. Moreover, it is an assault on Putin as a strong leader.

There is another way to explain the Snake Island developments: corruption among Russian generals who report much higher use of ammunition to target “military targets” in Ukraine, so they have a number of ammunition that do not are no longer mentioned in the reserve arsenal – this allows generals to sell them and earn money.

Russia has some kind of control procedures on the use of ammunition, but it is very likely that the numbers on paper and the numbers in the warehouses do not really match.

Recently I read an interesting article, the conclusions of which resonate with my previous writings. According to official information from the Russian Ministry of Defense, their army destroyed several times more Ukrainian tanks, artillery and all kinds of vehicles than the Ukrainian army ever had.

What we see is that the Russians are producing false information even as part of their own military planning.

Therefore, I would not be surprised to see false figures on the number of missiles that the Russian army launches into Ukrainian territory. With fuel, it’s even more obvious: it’s stolen all the time.

Speaking of cruise missiles, the Russians can’t really sell them anywhere – even delivering them from a Russian arms trading business entity overseas is a huge problem.

Very few countries would be able to buy Russian cruise missiles – perhaps North Korea or Iran. But these would be very risky steps, even with a high degree of adventurism currently prevailing in the Russian Federation.

Ultimately, it is Russia’s large-scale corruption and utter ignorance of international law that becomes a deciding factor. That’s why you can’t really say what Russia will do next with its weapons.

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