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“Peak interest rates could be lower than expected as slower growth looms”


Some background reading for the weekend in this report.

Rates may have peaked at the moment.

The idea isn’t fresh, as economic data has crashed over the past few weeks, yields have fallen, down sharply from the cycle highs reached in May (info via Greg):

  • 2 years 2.484%, +0.2 basis points. The high yield of the cycle reached 2.857%. Yield fell -37 basis points.

  • 5 years 2.724%, +1.2 basis points. The high yield of the cycle reached 3.107%. Yield fell -38 basis points

  • 10 years 2.743%, -0.8 basis points. The high yield of the cycle reached 3.203%. Yield fell -46 basis points.

  • 30 years 2.972%, -1.2 basis points. The high yield of the cycle reached 3.309%. Yield fell -34 basis points

but the report contains comments from various analysts, noting a likely policy divergence between the Fed and the BoE.

Bailey of the Bank of England testifies


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