It’s that time of year when college football’s middle class is pushing for bowl eligibility, a handful of elite teams are trying to keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive, while some teams gave up altogether.
I’m going into all three this week for my best bets.
Oregon State Arizona
Oregon State -3
In the world of sports betting, there are public and non-public teams.
For every Alabama and USC that draw interest and bets from casual fans, there are teams like Oregon State that fly under the radar.
Despite earning their highest ranking in the AP Poll since 2012, the Beavers are still rated as a mid-tier bowl team.
They just don’t have the pizzazz of other Pac-12 programs with Heisman candidates at quarterback.
And that’s why you still see them discounted in the betting market despite a 5-2 record against the spread.
Between the white lines, Oregon State has been solid all season long.
Their attack is perfectly balanced, as evidenced by its success rate on the ground (fourth) and its explosiveness in the air (21st).
Former Dr Pepper pitchman DJ Uiagalelei appears to be reborn in black and orange.
He ranks seventh in QBR nationally while totaling 20 touchdowns against just four turnovers.
Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Damien Martinez ranks third nationally with 6.4 yards per carry.
As a team, Oregon State is incredibly efficient in all areas and leads the nation in red dot percentage (100%) and touchdown percentage inside the 20-yard line. opponent (84%).
But the main reason I love this piece is Jonathan Smith.
Since arriving in Corvallis, he has been the fourth most profitable coach in the country as a favorite, cashing in his tickets at a rate of 70.4%. His team will be ready to play in the desert after their bye week.
UConn at Boston College
It’s white flag season for UConn.
After leading the Huskies to a surprise Bowl appearance last season, Jim Mora lost his team here in 2023.
Sitting at 1-6, coming off a homecoming loss to a middling USF team, UConn is ready to call it quits.
And here is a BC team that is thriving thanks to dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos.
Winners of three straight, the Eagles ride the do-it-all Castellanos until his wheels fall off.
Last week against Georgia Tech, Castellanos threw for 255 yards, rushed for 128 yards and accounted for four touchdowns.
Betting on college football?
UConn has hit rock bottom defensively, especially against the pass where they rank 130th in success rate.
Once the Eagles take an early lead, all the pressure will shift to UConn’s Ta’Quan Roberson.
He’s been terrible this season, posting four games with a QBR below 34. Boston College should wipe the floor with the Huskies.
San Jose State Hawaii
San Jose State -10.5
SJSU was left for dead at 1-5, but that’s more a testament to its brutal schedule that included three ranked opponents and road tests at Toledo and Boise State.
Since then, the Spartans have won two straight, decimating New Mexico and Utah State.
They are now set to face a Hawaii defense that has given up more than 40 points in four of its last five games.
The Spartans defense looks rejuvenated as of late, wreaking havoc with 15 tackles for loss and seven takedowns in its last three games.
Brent Brennan’s defense will be the difference here against a Hawaii offensive line that can’t protect its quarterback (121st in sacks allowed) or consistently open holes for its running backs (118th in pass success rate). ground).