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Morgan Stanley Research:

  • “We turned neutral on the GBP and closed our short GBP/NOK position as the risk/reward for the short GBP became less attractive. That said, we believe the risks are still on the downside for the GBP as the UK faces slowing growth and the biggest real disposable income to hit consumers since the 1970s. Despite this, markets are still pricing in too much policy tightening in our view, with more than five hikes in 25bp forecast for this year. Our economists only forecast two 25bp hikes for this year, in May and June respectively,”
  • That said, over the medium term, we believe a more cautious and growth-focused BoE, in line with our economist’s forecast, could actually be positive for the currency.”


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