Markets are pricing in a 27% chance that the Fed will only do 50 basis points, so it might consider being cautious here. And one of the main reasons the market is pricing in that is because that’s what the Fed has been guiding. You can’t tell the market what you’re going to do and then say you’re doing it just because that’s what the market has set.
In another sign of the mess the Fed finds itself in, Daly cited the UMich’s inflation expectations survey for the 75 basis point hike instead of 50. Today, that figure was revised down. She acknowledged as much today, saying the revision ‘caught my attention’ while saying long-term inflation expectations had ‘come up’.
She also laid out a strategy, saying that if they increased charging rates, they might not have to do the same. This comment departs somewhat from the incessant warmongering discourse of recent times.