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The Yen was a notable move in early Asian trade with USD/JPY surging from 134.70 to 135.22 before falling back to around 135.50-70 for now. For now, the hold below 135.00 is still key and will be the thing to watch ahead of the weekly close.

Elsewhere, there is little appetite among major currencies with rather tighter ranges prevailing on the day. The fact that most dollar pairs are holding within 20 pips of change of each other illustrates the lack of conviction on the session so far:

That said, there are a few market narratives that are in play and/or worth considering:

  • Market quotes for the Fed’s terminal rate have been reduced
  • The same can be said for the ECB and BOE this week too.
  • The yen was looking for a fresh leg down but has since rallied; strong technical decline
  • Oil Remains in Tricky Position as Downward Push Holds Below Key Technical Levels
  • Recession risks rise as bond yields fall
  • Stocks brush off jitters, focusing more on central bank bets reduced perhaps?

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