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GOP finally off the mat: ‘We’re going to have the Senate’

In other battleground states, Democratic incumbents Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Raphael Warnock Georgia are trying to hold on, while the GOP shows late momentum against Democratic incumbents Arizona and New Hampshire. Democrats could still defy conventional wisdom and expand their majority, but Republicans are beginning to predict a power grab.

“The odds right now are very, very strong,” Iowa Sen said. Joni Ernst, a member of the GOP leadership. “I’m just going to say: we’re going to have the Senate next Tuesday.”

Even getting control of the Senate doesn’t mean a major sweep, of course, and Republicans rightly refuse to predict one. Democrats’ prospects are rocked by economic and political headwinds, but they still benefit from underfunded, second-tier GOP candidates and a huge number of fundraisers from their candidates.

A GOP senator, whose anonymity was granted to candidly assess the party’s chances, said, “It’s not going to be a red wave, like people predicted at first. But it won’t be a blue wave either. It could be a red ripple.

Democrats seem almost certain to lose the House for now, but their leaders are hoping to rerun the 2018 midterm elections with a split result between the two chambers. During this cycle, the House GOP majority collapsed under former President Donald Trump, but Senate Republicans ended up winning two seats.

This seemed more doable over the summer. The Democratic Party warned for months that its big leads were illusions then, that races would tighten as GOP voters returned to their candidates and super PACs emptied their bank accounts. Democratic leaders are projecting optimism today.

Chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Gary Peters still believes not only that “we will retain the majority, but I believe we will pick up” a seat or two.

“All of our races are in battleground states, and by definition a battleground state is a very close election that comes down to the wire,” Michigander said. “I feel very good where we are. We have a very clear contrast in each of these races between our Democratic incumbents and the Republicans they are running against. »

Yet once clearly favored to win, Fetterman is now in a coin toss race. Meaning. Mark Kelly from Arizona and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire saw their advances dwindle as Election Day approached. Warnock and Cortez Masto are the most vulnerable starters on the card, and Georgia’s run could even go to a second round, which could determine chamber control depending on results in other races.

Democratic leaders are loudly acknowledging in growing numbers that they face a challenging national environment where historical trends do not favor the party that occupies the White House.

Things will generally “go the opposite way to the current president,” the senator said. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) said, and it’s “the exception when it’s not.”

If there is a good night for Republicans, it could reach Arizona and New Hampshire. Republicans Blake Masters and Don Bolduc are still the underdogs, but are closer to Kelly and Hassan than a few weeks ago.

This week, a St. Anselm poll showed Bolduc slightly ahead of Hassan for the first time, while Kelly typically leads Masters by just a handful of points. In Arizona, Libertarian candidate Marc Victor endorsed Masters this week, which could tighten those numbers even further.

“I think Blake is going to be successful. And I think Bolduc is very close,” said Jessica Anderson, who runs the conservative Sentinel Action Fund, which spent late in both races.

Major last-minute ad buys by New Hampshire super PACs on Wednesday underscored just how fiercely competitive racing has become. Citizens for Sanity, a right-wing super PAC, placed a $3.2 million television buy. The Democratic majority in the Senate PAC, meanwhile, added another $1.2 million.

Dave Carney, a National Republican strategist based in New Hampshire, said Granite State’s tighter Senate race is a bad sign for Democrats across the country heading into Tuesday. Carney argued that Hassan, Biden and the country’s Democrats haven’t struck a sympathetic enough tone when discussing the economic challenges people face.

“People my age and younger – we’ve never had the President of the United States, the leader of the free world, tell us to buy fucking generic grape bran. That’s his solution” , Carney said, referring to Biden’s comments last week when he suggested Americans might no longer be able to afford “Kellogg’s Raisin Bran.”

Peters said the Supreme Court’s decision striking down federal abortion rights and subsequent re-registration of female voters “will be a difference maker in the end” in some tough races. Democratic Meaning. Patty Murray of Washington and Michael Benet of Colorado are both reliably leading their races ahead of the election.

Yet both parties increasingly recognize that while the abortion issue has changed the landscape, it is not a panacea for Democrats. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Said that while every Democrat should talk about abortion rights, the party also needs to “focus on corporate greed. You have to talk about the grotesque level of income and wealth inequality.

And Republicans say abortion-focused campaigns haven’t overcome concerns about inflation: “There’s no more, ‘It’s all about abortion,'” Ernst said. “Because it’s not.”

Despite President Joe Biden’s low popularity, the quality of candidates remains a sticking point for Republicans and the ultimate effect of the abortion decision is more of a wild card than the GOP claims. Polling averages show Fetterman holding a narrow one-point lead over Oz, who faces deep downside ratings. Fetterman was leading in all three polls released Wednesday. And in the Nevada and Georgia Senate races, each party’s nominee for months has lost its mind.

Republicans hold enduring but narrow advantages in GOP-held seats in Ohio and North Carolina, according to polling averages. Two new polls in Wisconsin showed a close race between GOP Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes: Marquette Law School and Emerson College showed Johnson a 2-point and 4-point lead, respectively.

Winning either of those seats would be a game-changer for Democrats.

“Some of these Republicans would struggle to get elected dog catcher, and in that kind of midterm environment, that helped keep Senate Democrats in good stead to win,” said David Bergstein, gatekeeper. -word of the campaign branch headed by Peters.

Ben Wikler, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, claimed Barnes’ recent fundraising bonanza puts his challenge to Johnson “back in nail-biting territory.” But even so, he said, “the president’s party almost always loses ground in Wisconsin, regardless of which party holds the presidency.”


POLITICO

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