Forexlive Nth American FX News November 26 | Business News Today

Forexlive Nth American FX News November 26

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Risk reigns

Black Friday sales are hitting the markets. Did you get a good deal?

The session started with an obvious risk of gaining a foothold. However, the initial European risk of frenzy had slowed considerably by the start of the session. At this point, it is difficult to fully understand these risk movements, as the new variant has been known for a few days before the sale. The sell off on the backs of low liquidity markets on Thanksgiving makes it a slightly suspicious decline, which I argued about the heightened moves to Reuters Carolyn Cohn this morning.

The session saw a steady trickle of news on Covid variants, which just kept risk out of the market throughout the weekend. The dollar has continued to fall as it is dragged down by lower yields right now, as explained here. However, we also had some comments from a South African scientist who said we have all indications that vaccines still prevent serious deaths from COVID-19 by variant. This is really good and a reminder that this risk of a bad mood can go away as quickly as it appeared if the vaccine is still effective against the variant.. We have no evidence that this is not the case. This is anecdotal evidence that this is the case. More data to come, so watch this space.

On the front of UK-EU tensions, Frost said the UK is ready to use Article 16 as the gap between the EU and UK is still “large” . Same old, same old, so the market hasn’t even wavered at that. There has been a whole range of massive sales of stocks. Oil was also hammered and down more than 12% on the day

  • FTSE-3.7%
  • Euro Stoxx -3.7%
  • Dax -4.2%
  • CAC -4.9%
  • S & P500 reportedly down -2.0%

Europe’s Stoxx 600 has had its worst day since June 2020
Dow saw biggest one-day drop since October 28, 2020
Nasdaq closes with biggest one-day drop since September 28

Is the variant vaccine resistant? Is it more highly transmissible? Is it more or less lethal than the delta variant? With so many unknowns there is cause for concern, but not enough information for either lightening or total fear. As a result, we end up with a cautious market heading into the weekend that just wants to get rid of the risk. There will be a quick reassessment next week, and watch out for a turnaround on Tuesday. The NZDJPY is in an ideal position if this last safe move turns out to be a false alarm. See the outlook for the NZDUSD and NZDJPY on a more hawkish RBNZ that is placed on a trek cycle.

It was a pleasure to all, take care of yourself.

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Forexlive Nth American FX News November 26

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