ECB Kazaks: 25 bps in July, 50 bps in September is the baseline scenario


  • While it may be worth considering a 50 basis point rate hike in July
  • It may be reasonable to anticipate rate hikes

The more hawkish members will try to push for 50 basis points in July, but it doesn’t look like they’ll be able to get it. As it stands, it seems almost likely that the ECB will play it “by the book” in its base case scenario. And that is precisely what the markets have already predicted for the time being.


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