Donald Bolduc’s chances of beating Maggie Hassan, according to the polls

Sen. Maggie Hassan is favored to keep her seat in New Hampshire even though a major poll shows Republican challenger Donald Bolduc winning over her.

The Democratic lawmaker will take on Bolduc in a live debate Thursday hosted by local news outlets, including New Hampshire Public Radio (NHPR).

The Senate race in New Hampshire has received less attention than contests such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, but the latest Emerson College Polling/WHDH 7 News survey may have Democrats worried.

The Emerson poll found Hassan ahead of Bolduc by just 3 percentage points, from 48% to 45%. A month ago, the same survey gave Hassan an 11-point lead.

Another poll, conducted Oct. 23 by InsiderAdvantage, showed Hassan ahead of Bolduc, a retired U.S. Army brigadier general, by just one point — 48 percent to the Republican’s 47 percent.

However, analysis from poll tracker FiveThirtyEight shows Hassan is still the favorite to win. This gives him a 78% chance of victory, compared to 22% for Bolduc.

This gap has also narrowed over the past month. On September 27, FiveThirtyEight gave Hassan an 86% chance and Bolduc 14%.

Last week, Bolduc’s team pointed to a poll by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, conducted for the Republican campaign from October 17-19, that placed him at 47%, just 2 points behind Hassan on 49%.

“Washington, DC may not be focused on this race, but New Hampshire residents are certainly paying attention, and that’s bad news for Sen. Hassan,” Bolduc’s campaign said in a statement on the 21st. october.

A Republican victory in New Hampshire would be a significant upset and could decide the balance of power in the Senate, given tight races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

It remains to be seen how the candidates will fare in Thursday’s debate. It will take place from noon to 1 p.m. local time and will be broadcast live on NHPR. It will also be streamed live online. The debate will be rebroadcast at 8 p.m. on radio and on New Hampshire PBS.

Bolduc focused on inflation and criticized Democratic policies that he said exacerbated the problem. Hassan took aim at Bolduc’s earlier comments on abortion that he “would always fall short for a system that protects lives from beginning to end.”

During the campaign, the Republican said he believed the issue should be decided by the states and said he would vote against a federal ban on abortion, while Hassan called Bolduc’s earlier comments a “extreme”.

Newsweek asked the Bolduc and Hassan campaigns for comment.