Bruins vs Penguins Winter Classic 2023 prediction, odds
It’s already quite a season for the Boston Bruins. They have the best record in the NHL, they’re 18-0-2 at home, they lead the NHL in goals-against average and they’re now consensus Stanley Cup favorites. All this during a campaign where the B’s were meant to step back.
Winning the 2023 Winter Classic at Fenway Park would be another feather in the hat for top-flight Bs.
A week ago, you would have thought a matchup with the Pittsburgh Penguins would be a pretty tough test for the Bruins. The Pens entered the break on a 15-3-3 radiator and looked like a very safe bet to make the playoffs. But Pittsburgh left the vacation in poor shape, losing three games to the Islanders, Red Wings and Devils, and now faces a cluster of injuries.
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Kris Letang, Jeff Petry and Chad Ruhwedel are all likely to miss the Winter Classic, which means Pittsburgh will face the NHL’s best team with half their regular defensemen on the shelf.
Pittsburgh still seems capable of handling these kinds of injury bugs, but it’s not just the health of the team that’s of concern right now. The Penguins have also struggled to drive the game five-on-five over the past month. After posting a 54% expected goal rate and a high 55% danger chance rate in its first 23 games, Pittsburgh has barely exceeded 50% in either category since early December and is below 50% in its last 10 matches.
That doesn’t bode well against the Bruins, who rank first in five-on-five goal differential, third in expected goal rate and sixth in high-risk scoring chance percentage this season.
Boston has been superb at five-on-five this season, but the Bs are also receiving major contributions from their special teams — they have the fourth-best power play and second-best penalty kill in the NHL so far — and their goalkeepers, specifically Linus Ullmark.
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Ullmark, who wasn’t even guaranteed to be the starter in Beantown this year, leads the NHL in .938 save percentage and +20.4 goals scored above expectations (per MoneyPuck) in 24 appearances this year. season.
At first glance, the price tag on Boston might seem a bit steep, especially in a one-time contest like the Winter Classic. But considering injuries and form, it makes sense that Boston is the clear favorite on Monday afternoon.
With Letang, Petry and Ruhwedel out, it’s hard to imagine the Penguins staying with Boston five-for-five. Boston should be able to get the separation needed for bettors to feel comfortable setting the -1.5 goals on the puck line.
bet it Bruins -1.5 goals.
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