Almanac predicts “freezing temperatures” and snow across the country this winter
- The Farmers’ Almanac, which has been forecasting weather for the United States since 1818, has released its forecast for the winter of 2022-2023.
- Forecasts predict that the “first bite of winter” will arrive earlier than last year, with freezing temperatures hitting the north-central region particularly hard.
- These overall weather forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, say some weather experts.
DES MOINES — The Farmers’ Almanac has released its winter weather forecast across the United States, and it’s going to be — you guessed it — freezing.
Specifically, the Almanac, an annual American periodical published since 1818, calls the north-central region a “hibernating, glacial, snowy zone.” Yeah.
“The big takeaway from our forecast for the winter season,” writes the periodical, “is that freezing temperatures are expected to pour into many parts of the country – especially in the north-central region, where readers will be shivering and shivering. definitely!”
The North Central region encompasses Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming.
There will be a fair share of storms in the region, which means plenty of snow for winter-lovers — “perhaps even in time for a White Christmas,” the almanac’s editors wrote.
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How much will it snow in the United States this winter?
The first day of winter and the shortest day of the year will be December 21, but the almanac’s 2022-2023 winter forecast predicts that the “first bite of winter” should arrive earlier than that from last year.
December promises to be stormy and cold across the United States and several “significant weather disruptions” are on the horizon, including:
- Chance of heavy snow, followed by a sweep of very cold air, the first week of January in the Rockies and across the Plains. The weather could reach as far south as Texas and Oklahoma.
- Episodes of heavy rain and snow across the eastern two-thirds of the United States from January 16 to 23, the Almanac predicts. It will be followed by “one of the coldest arctic air epidemics” recorded for several years. We are talking about 40 degrees below zero.
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Here are some highlights from other regions, according to the Farmers’ Almanac:
- Much of the southeast will see a mix of wet snow, sleet, ice, freezing rain and cold temperatures.
- South-central states could see some snow accumulation, especially in early January.
- The Pacific Northwest will see about normal winter precipitation, although the Southwest is expected to receive below normal amounts.
How does the Farmers’ Almanac make its predictions?
The “Old Farmer’s Almanac”, which began in 1792, and the “Farmers’ Almanac”, which began in 1818, came into being more than a century before satellite weather tracking became a practice.
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Instead of comparing the coming winter with the previous one, the periodical measures long-term normals for temperature, precipitation, and snowfall using mathematical and astronomical formulations to make its predictions. The formula takes into account sunspot activity, tidal activity, the position of the planets and “a variety of other factors,” according to its website.
How accurate is the Farmers Almanac?
These overall weather forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt, say some weather experts. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has traditionally claimed to be 80% accurate, but research in recent years has suggested otherwise.
In 2016 and 2017, for example, meteorologist Jan Null conducted a review of the accuracy of the “Old Farmer’s Almanac”, assigning “good”, “poor” and “mixed” ratings to the winter forecasts. almanac based on the comparison of projections with actual weather results in each region of the United States
Precision:Almanac predicts cool temperatures. Should we trust it?
Only 25% of the 57 regions surveyed received a “good” accuracy rating for precipitation forecasts in the 2016 and 2017 editions of the Old Farmer’s Almanac. For temperature forecasts over the same period, the almanac achieved “good” accuracy over just under 33% of the 52 regions examined.
Contributor: Jay Cannon, USA TODAY.
Follow Virginia Barreda on Twitter at @vbarreda2.